I understand that, when valuating the company, you are trying to figure out how the market can value it more than calculating the intrinsic value.
In the case of this company which has a pretty limited production in years, to my undestanding, it would be more indicative on how far current price is from intrinsic value making a simple DCF calculation using for 2024-2029 conservative normalized scenarios. By doing that the current valuation looks simply ridiculous.
Although as shareholders we would like to see more allocation on buybacks or dividends, I understand that management tries to find a future for the continuation of the company and there is no reason, At least I don't find it, to think that the management will take a really wrong decision both because they are very large shareholders and the decisions they took in the past were very good for creating value (example repurchase of debt in 2020)
Great analysis, all points considered, it looks like it has more upside than downside. It's good that you mentioned that management has big ownership stake, so even if they have other interests, they wont go full crazy. IMO it deserves a very low price given low reserves, a possible acquisition and rising extraction costs. But it should not be SO low. We will soon see negatvie EV as you said. Might start a position. Gracias!
Thanks a lot for the analysis.
I understand that, when valuating the company, you are trying to figure out how the market can value it more than calculating the intrinsic value.
In the case of this company which has a pretty limited production in years, to my undestanding, it would be more indicative on how far current price is from intrinsic value making a simple DCF calculation using for 2024-2029 conservative normalized scenarios. By doing that the current valuation looks simply ridiculous.
Although as shareholders we would like to see more allocation on buybacks or dividends, I understand that management tries to find a future for the continuation of the company and there is no reason, At least I don't find it, to think that the management will take a really wrong decision both because they are very large shareholders and the decisions they took in the past were very good for creating value (example repurchase of debt in 2020)
sadly management team sucks, what you want to see in a coal company is huge buybacks and fat divies, but now, they are hoarding cash like dumbasses
The drop in recent weeks is scary, not sure if this was manipulated or some bad news that we don't know
Great analysis, all points considered, it looks like it has more upside than downside. It's good that you mentioned that management has big ownership stake, so even if they have other interests, they wont go full crazy. IMO it deserves a very low price given low reserves, a possible acquisition and rising extraction costs. But it should not be SO low. We will soon see negatvie EV as you said. Might start a position. Gracias!